🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.